Around half way through this years tour how much do we really know about who might win? With all the crashes in the first week we certainly know who wont win. Vino, Wiggins, and half of Radioshack hit the floor along with Gesink and a bunch of others...including Contador several times. The Russian mullet Vladamir "Axminster" Carpets assisted one of Contadors offs into the barriers. Its hard to assess Contador's form as his string of bingles have no doubt sapped some of his usual zip - but he did look dodgy on last nights climb to Luz Ardiden. Can he recover over the next few days and attack to gain some time back? My assessment is no - the crashes and fatigue of the Giro (and all the booing and meat jibes from the crowd) are taking their toll. So that leaves us with only a few obvious contenders for the GC by the time they get to Paris. The Shlecks, "our" Cadel, Basso and although 4 minutes back Sammy Sanchez. I discount Cunego as he usually has at least one day where he blows big and loses lots of time.
Of this lot, the Shleck's and their team Le-O-pard Trek look the strongest. Having the one, two combination of Andy and Frank is a big asset and even Cadels aerodynamic chin cant compete with their double act. Basso also looked good last night and cant be discounted but I am not sure his team are strong enough to give him the support required for the full three weeks.
So who will win? I will bet on a Shleck - but Cadel has a very good show provided he stays upright. He time trials better than the Shlecks and provided he is not too far behind for the stage 20 time trial in Grenoble he may get up. His challenge in the mountains is to be able to pull back the riders who can put in vicious attacks - he is more of a big diesel engine and can't change pace as quickly on the climbs as some others. So if he can claw back and limit his losses in the big mountains we may yet get an aussie winner.
In other TDF news Cavendish continues to dominate in the sprints winning another 3 stages so far but is only just ahead in the green jersey comp - that will remain interesting until Paris I suspect with Rojas and Gilbert on his tail and Gilbert likely to chase more stage wins on intermediate mountain stages.
Johnny Hoogerlands arse had a good showing in stage 9 after his dance with the barbed wire fence. UCI and tour officials need to have a good hard look at themselves. I am surprised it doesn't happen more often given the speed and number of vehicles on the road. And this after they got all excited about saddle angles on the stage 2 team time trial. Priorities.
Two stages still to come that stand out as rippers are stage 14 to Plateau de Beille and stage 19 to Alp d Huez so put some sleep in the bank for those two. Another ripper is tonight's stage for the descent from Col d' Aubisque and Col du Soulor. Geraint Thomas wont want to be missing any corners on that descent or they will be searching for body parts for the next week.
A couple of things I recommend to supplement your TDF enjoyment. First is Tour Tracker on the SBS site, second Ozcycling's Youtube channel for interviews and last is steephill.TV for coverage, summaries and good pics.
I will leave you with my spin on the France TV car fiasco....... see video here
Of this lot, the Shleck's and their team Le-O-pard Trek look the strongest. Having the one, two combination of Andy and Frank is a big asset and even Cadels aerodynamic chin cant compete with their double act. Basso also looked good last night and cant be discounted but I am not sure his team are strong enough to give him the support required for the full three weeks.
So who will win? I will bet on a Shleck - but Cadel has a very good show provided he stays upright. He time trials better than the Shlecks and provided he is not too far behind for the stage 20 time trial in Grenoble he may get up. His challenge in the mountains is to be able to pull back the riders who can put in vicious attacks - he is more of a big diesel engine and can't change pace as quickly on the climbs as some others. So if he can claw back and limit his losses in the big mountains we may yet get an aussie winner.
In other TDF news Cavendish continues to dominate in the sprints winning another 3 stages so far but is only just ahead in the green jersey comp - that will remain interesting until Paris I suspect with Rojas and Gilbert on his tail and Gilbert likely to chase more stage wins on intermediate mountain stages.
Johnny Hoogerlands arse had a good showing in stage 9 after his dance with the barbed wire fence. UCI and tour officials need to have a good hard look at themselves. I am surprised it doesn't happen more often given the speed and number of vehicles on the road. And this after they got all excited about saddle angles on the stage 2 team time trial. Priorities.
Two stages still to come that stand out as rippers are stage 14 to Plateau de Beille and stage 19 to Alp d Huez so put some sleep in the bank for those two. Another ripper is tonight's stage for the descent from Col d' Aubisque and Col du Soulor. Geraint Thomas wont want to be missing any corners on that descent or they will be searching for body parts for the next week.
A couple of things I recommend to supplement your TDF enjoyment. First is Tour Tracker on the SBS site, second Ozcycling's Youtube channel for interviews and last is steephill.TV for coverage, summaries and good pics.
I will leave you with my spin on the France TV car fiasco....... see video here
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